Kentucky has been historically conservative, but only in the past few decades has it become resolutely red. Though the state has reliably favored Republican candidates for national offices over the past half-century, state positions often went to Democrats. Since 1950, only three Republicans held the office of governor, and none were reelected for a second term.
Election maps from the close of the 20th century show the beginnings of the red shift. In 1999’s gubernatorial election, county-by-county results show a near-solid mass of blue, with only seven counties marked in red.
That changed with Governor Ernie Fletcher’s election in 2003, when the majority of the state appeared red, with patches of blue concentrated in far eastern and western areas of the state.
While the consecutive elections of Steve Beshear in 2007 and 2011 saw a wide, unbroken arch of blue from Fulton County to Pike County, south-central Kentucky remained red.
In both the 2015 and 2019 elections, the blue band fragmented as the red spread, with more counties favoring Republican candidates.
Dr. Erik Lewis, who teaches political science at Morehead State University, said the blue patch across eastern Kentucky has largely disappeared, with the exception of Rowan county.
“Rowan county, as a university town, seems to be the biggest holdout in this part of the country with respect to turning red,” said Lewis. “But the trends are only as good as the last election."
In this week’s 2023 general election, Republicans won all but one of the statewide offices on the ballot - the exception being the seat of Governor, which went to incumbent Andy Beshear. Though the state appears more red than blue by county, 2023’s map shows a re-assembled blue arc spanning southeast from Franklin county to Letcher county.
Lewis said lots of factors potentially played into the governor’s win.
“Rocky Adkins, who is locally popular - this is some of his old territory, and he is a close ally of the governor. Perhaps effective flood relief may be a part of it. There is a little bit of left populist tradition in eastern Kentucky that Beshear may have been able to tap into,” said Lewis. “And then more of a pale underbelly of this - Daniel Cameron is African-American, and there’s still 9-12 percent of the population that wouldn’t vote for an African-American, no matter what.”
One thing which unites the four blue southeasternmost counties is a unique distinction; in the wake of 2022’s deadly flood, thirteen counties were designated as federal disaster areas, receiving essential emergency funding and resources. Among these, Knott, Letcher, Perry, and Floyd counties were announced as designated locations for high ground communities - special residential development areas situated outside floodplains for flood survivors.
Six high ground communities have been proposed, with joint funding from the Team Eastern Kentucky Flood Relief Fund, the Appalachian Regional Commission, Eastern Kentucky SAFE funds, and FEMA. The partnership with FEMA to provide permanent housing, rather than temporary housing, is the first of its kind.
In a race which drew national attention, and which often spoke to national issues, Lewis said it may have been Beshear’s local efforts which shifted votes in his favor.
“Beshear had a reputation of an effective governor, a middle of the road sort of governor, that made it easier to tap into some votes in that part of the arc,” said Lewis.
Daniel Cameron, Beshear’s opponent, conceded Tuesday night and called to congratulate Beshear on his win. In his concession speech, Cameron said he, Andy, and the rest of the state share a similar vision.
“We want a better Commonwealth," Cameron said,
"One in which it can ultimately be a shining city on a hill.”
Beshear beat Cameron by just over 67,000 votes.