SPRINGFIELD, Mass. — Theresa Rios came to the grocery store this week with a shorter shopping list than usual. And she's also paying even more attention than usual to price.
Walking past a shelf of items labeled "Real Bacon Bits" next to packages of imitation bacon bits, Rios doesn't hesitate. "This is $2.19 and this is $1.59," she says, "so I'm going to buy this."
Rios is a regular at the Save A Lot store in Springfield. But since she started hearing that her federal food assistance might soon be cut off, she has been trying to put some of the money she receives aside, just in case. And, she's no longer giving all her business to Save A Lot.
"I'm at the point where I am shopping for deals at three different stores," she says. "So I'll come here because this is cheaper than Stop & Shop, but some of the items at Price Rite are cheaper than here, and Walmart is [cheaper for] the cleaning stuff … I just shop around."
Rios says she's also forgoing some items altogether, as she has switched to new, cheaper meals for herself and her three young grandchildren, who she takes care of full time. Dinner is downgraded to rice and beans, and she is no longer buying the kids' favorite cereal.
"They'll have to settle for what I can give them," she says.
Rios is hardly the only shopper forced to be more frugal. Some 42 million Americans rely on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, formerly known as food stamps, and as many of them worry about losing their food aid, some grocery businesses are increasingly concerned as well. There are 250,000 retailers authorized to accept SNAP benefits. Most would be able to absorb whatever loss that might come from a lapse in SNAP, but others, like the Springfield Save A Lot, are more vulnerable. SNAP purchases at this store make up a solid 65% of sales.
Already, manager Jose Pajares says those sales have started to dry up.
"It's scary," he says. "I see less customers every day because they're afraid to spend all the money they have for the whole month."
As a result, Pajares says he's been ordering less stock for the store, and he's dropping prices to try to boost sales. But he still ends up with meat and produce languishing on the shelf until its expiration date.
"If we don't sell we have to throw it out," he says. "Every day, we throw things away."
Even in the best of times, grocery profit margins are razor thin — usually just a penny or two on the dollar. And recent challenges around tariffs, for example, have sliced profits even thinner.
Anthony Peña, who owns this store, also owns a few others that are less dependent on SNAP business. That means he's able to weather a dip in sales for a bit, he says, but not for long.
"After one, maybe two months, I'll start to think about the nuclear options, as we call it, having to think about closing the store," Peña says.
"For small supermarket grocers, challenges like SNAP reductions can have a significant impact on profitability, which unfortunately can put some stores and lots of jobs in jeopardy," says Scott Moses, an investment banker with Solomon Partners who wrote the book A 'Grocery' Christmas Carol about the rapid and seismic changes in the grocery industry.
He says a prolonged SNAP shutdown could mean more pressure on the already shrinking number of small independent supermarkets, which are being squeezed by grocery giants like Walmart. By itself, Walmart has almost as much market share as all the nation's 26,000 small supermarket grocers combined.
Now, Moses says, Walmart might well gain even more; if there is a cutoff of SNAP benefits, he says the superstore would likely draw in more new customers.
"A significant amount of customers are going to trade down to what they perceive to be lower-priced operators, and net, net, Walmart will likely come out ahead," Moses says.
For the less fortunate stores, however, there is growing concern that any closures could have broad and serious repercussions.
"There's a ripple effect that's going to happen here," says Jerome Bouyer, vice president of retail operations for Save A Lot. For starters, Save A Lot stores tend to be "in places that are already 'food deserts' and have food insecurity. That just makes the problem that much worse."
There is also worry about the impact on local vendors, suppliers and distributors.
"For example, the bread guy or the guy who delivers eggs or milk to the store," Peña says. "Instead of delivering 100 units, now he's going to deliver 25 units — 75 units less. So that's when things get a little bit more complicated."
And of course, store employees are acutely aware that their jobs are also on the line. Already, there are cashiers just standing around during what is supposed to be the busiest shopping hour of the day.
"I'm worried because if customers aren't coming because they don't get food stamps, our jobs are at risk," cashier Stephanie Hernández says in Spanish. She has an 11-year-old and twin 1-year-olds. "If I don't work," she says, "how will I pay my bills?"
If the worst-case scenario does come to pass, it would be a double blow for Hernandez. She gets SNAP benefits herself. So if payments are allowed to lapse, she could end up losing her food assistance — and her job.
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