Forecasters are predicting an abnormal winter weather season this year. Alex Vorst, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Jackson, said there is a La Niña pattern forming off the west coast. It’s caused by cooler than normal surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean which push the Polar Jet Stream northward, creating temperature and precipitation impacts across the country.
Vorst said this system could affect the region through March.
“When it comes to La Niña impacts on eastern Kentucky it’s kind of a warmer, wetter, you see more chances of systems that bring in more precipitation is the trend. Or the season is a wetter pattern to begin with. And you also see a 30 to 40% chance of above average temperatures,” Vorst said.
He added this prediction is based off the temperatures and amount of precipitation the area gets in the winter when the sea surface temperatures are not any warmer or cooler than normal.
“Let's say the average is 33 degrees and you're getting 5 inches in those three months. With a La Niña, it may be 34 degrees and you may see 7 inches in three months. So, it's just a slight shift. Because you're looking at it over a season, not a specific snowstorm or multiple snowstorms,” said Vorst
Vorst said this system does not necessarily mean any more or less snow than usual. This is because it is a prediction of the average temperature and precipitation for the whole season. Meaning there could still be some heavy snowstorms despite the above average temperatures. In addition to the chance for a warmer and wetter winter in eastern Kentucky, a La Niña also tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. Vorst added, throughout the remainder of the fall season eastern Kentucky is predicted to see higher than normal temperatures and average rainfall.
Forecasters are predicting the first snow showers of the season moving into the Commonwealth Thursday night.
